Date added: Friday September 9, 2006: 1230am EST

Big Storm; Little Action

Florence A Large Weakling

US Hit Remains Unlikely

By HurricaneNow.com
Chief Correspondent Jeff Flock

Florence Refuses To Get Stronger

We keep pointing out that Florence is a big storm. Indeed tropical storm force winds now extend more than 400 miles out from the center, meaning that there is a swath of 40-50 mph winds that spans about 800 miles across the Atlantic. But big doesn't mean much meteorologically. The storm, as the NHC points out, "refuses to strengthen," despite fairly favorable conditions. In fact, the latest data suggest it may have actually gotten slightly weaker as it continues on its northwesterly track currently in the direction of the US.

Still Forecast To Be First Hurricane of 2006

The hurricane center continues to forecast Florence becoming a hurricane in the next several days. But, most important, the official forecast and all the models remain in agreement that there will be a gradual turn to the north and then northeast and away from land. And it seems increasingly likely that will take place not only long before the US coast is reached but even before the island of Bermuda. If the hurricane center is right, Florence will become a large, fairly powerful storm. But like the tree that falls in the forest with no one to hear it, this storm will fall hundreds of miles from land with only the passing ships to mark it.

Nothing Else Cooking Either

There was another area of disturbed weather that had some potential to the south of Florence but the stronger system has pretty much laid waste to the weaker, leaving not much of anything spinning up in the Atlantic. As we mentioned yesterday, this dearth of action comes despite the fact that we are into peak hurricane season.