HURRICANE RITA Afterthoughts

More Dead From Evacuation Than Storm

If you count those who died in the flight from Houston, including those bus explosion victims, there were far more killed in the pre-storm escape than from the actual storm.  So was the evacuation a failure?  And if so how do we fix the latest mistake of hurricane preparedness and planning?

Katrina Storm Disaster Avoidable-Rita Evacuation Disaster Maybe Not

One thing we have learned from Katrina versus Rita is that with more immediate response, the kind of disaster we saw in New Orleans after the hurricane is avoidable.  People shouldn't have been left in the Superdome or Convention Center without provisions or without being taken out on what was a driveable route.  People could have been rescued from roofs sooner.  The Rita response was dramatically better than Katrina.  But what can be done to avoid the gridlock on the Houston evacuation routes that caused the most chaos and loss of life before during or after hurricane Rita? 

The Truth Is: Not Much  

Yes, pre-positioning gas tanker trucks along the expressways to refill gas stations may have helped some.  But tankers don't carry that much fuel.  They rely on going back and forth between terminals and stations (which can only refill about 1500 cars on average) to make deliveries.  And the roads were gridlocked.  People burned so much gas because they were stuck in traffic.  If you try and move two or three million people out of a place like Houston over the course of a day or two, there is no way for the roads there or in New Orleans or any other significant population center not to clog.  The expressways just weren't built to have all the people who live there driving at the same time. 

What About Staggered Evacuation?

Great in principle.  But just try getting people to go along with it.  You see what happened when Houston mayor Bill White called for a staggered re-entry.  Everybody showed up at once.  And with a re-entry you could theoretically make it mandatory and turn people away who weren't supposed to be returning.  You can't very well turn back people trying to escape a storm.  And a staggered evacuation presumes you're going to know exactly where a storm will hit three days in advance.  The forecast track of Rita went from Matagorda Bay to Lake Jackson to Galveston to Beaumont with the eventual landfall coming in Louisiana.  And people will simply not evacuate as a precaution three days in advance.  They've had too many false alarms. 

We Built It-We Have To Live With It

The reality is that there are some big cities built in the potential path of major hurricanes.  Most times they don't get hit.  But this year it was New Orleans and Houston (close enough).  Next it could be Miami or the huge population centers to the north of Miami or Tampa or St. Petersburg, Savannah, Charleston, even Orlando.  Each city is different but all present evacuation problems. Should we build more and bigger roads that would only be used once every decade for a hurricane evacuation?  If you want to build huge cities on or near the coasts where hurricanes hit, there is no way to forestall every possible loss of life.  We can do better in making sure people who want to get out have a way.  We can do better making sure they have gas.  We can respond more quickly to those in need after the storm.  But...

We Can Only Do So Much

Where there are millions of people on a coast the fact is there will be traffic problems getting out of town.  Some will run out of gas on the way.  Some won't have a way out and get left behind.  Some will chose to stay and need to be rescued from a rooftop or swimming in a street.  As both Katrina and Rita proved, we can do better.  But we can't do it all. 

Previous Rita Posts:

The Crush Is Coming

Watching the CNN Airport Network at DFW Sunday morning I saw the traffic flow back into Houston which didn't look too bad.  Miles O'Brien was saying "Houstonians seem to be heeding pleas not to come back too soon."  I have news for them: the onslaugt is coming.  We spent the night driving the other direction from Houston to Dallas and the traffic is on its way.  This morning at our Dallas hotel numerous families were loading up.  The biggest evacuation in US history is headed in reverse and if gas supplies don't improve it will not be a pretty scene. 

What a Difference a Katrina Makes

Who is to say what human suffering would have been averted if even half the assets that were brought to bear on Saturday following hurricane Rita had poured in to New Orleans after Katrina.  Even during the end of the storm early Saturday morning we saw fuel tanker trucks moving down interstate 10.  Multiple convoys of ambulances of 30 or more vehicles passed us headed to Beaumont and points east.  National Guard troops in trucks and humvees were right behind.  Police presence was everywhere and order prevailed.  How very different from what we saw following hurricane Katrina in New Orleans.  Who knows whether there will be hitches and problems going forward, but this one is off on a very different foot. 

Sometimes You've Just Got To Smile

The obvious comparisons between response to the two hurricanes has spawned much discussion.  I won't engage in it here beyond having stated the obvious.  One of our subscribers alerts me to a collection of cartoons that perhaps say it best, from all perspectives.  Thanks Frieda.  And just click here for a smile.

Gas is Gold

The one thing that has not gone well at all is the gas situation.  There isn't any.  We drove from Beaumont half way to Austin before we got a fill up.  And that station in the tiny town of Waller, Texas was just about to run out.  It's hard to lay blame on this one.  First, the mass exodus (which killed more people than the hurricane) sappped all the gas along the major highways.  Then the storm knocked out power to many across a wide area.  Others have gas but the owners and operators had evacuated and couldn't get back to re-open.  And then the people heading back this morning because they thought the coast was clear have choked some roads and made tanker deliveries a problem.  

For anyone who heading or planning to head back (and believe me, we saw them coming as we were travelling north)  call 1-800-452-9292 for Texas Roadway Information.

Travellers have also been swapping info about delays and gas on the KHOU Blog Page.  Some good stuff there.  Thanks Maggy.

HurricaneNow Coverage Was Non-Stop

We had a night of coverage that I was proud of.  And I'm hard to please.  We began non-stop live streaming to our subscribers at 9p CDT and stayed live throughout the landfall (with one short break to feed tape to our free video control room), the eyewall pass over us and some of the back side of the storm.  We didn't stop until after 4am. 

And the storm's weakening to a Cat 3 allowed me to be outside at ground level experiencing the winds and rain and the rest.  While some of our viewers questioned my sanity at times as we were buffeted by upwards of 100 mph sustained winds.  But as I explained, there were many hurricanes I have covered that I wouldn't stand out in.  Hugo, Andrew and Katrina come to mind.  I didn't leave the parking garage in downtown New Orleans until Katrina was past.  But Rita, weakened already and with the eye moving just to our east, afforded the opportunity to be on the ground, hanging onto a pillar, or fence or pine tree, communing with nature....and, more important, giving you a sense of what it is like to be in a Cat 3 hurricane.  That has been our promise at HurricaneNow.  With hurricane Rita, I'm confident we delivered.  This as all the local stations in Beaumont were knocked off the air and even the networks retreated during the height of the storm, bringing their transmission dishes down.  We stayed up throughout.  I invite you to check out some snippets of our reporting on the home page and video control room.  We'll try and post more shortly.   A few of our subscribers had some technical problems accessing the stream.  For that we're sorry and I hope you know we will make it right.  We also had some wonderful feedback from our subscribers.  Here is just a snippet:

"Speaking of your coverage ... y'all did a superb job!! Two thumbs up! I just read your latest post on the website and I'm glad you're pleased w/ last night's outcome - you should be. It was a real treat and I was thrilled to be along for the ride... I still think you and Rob are a little nuts, but then so are all of us who stayed up all night (well, nearly all night) glued to the computer screen watching you get walloped by the wind and rain (and I mean that in the nicest way :- ). Like you said, it was your kind of storm, and ours, too."

Previous Posts

9.24  5:30am

What a night...and morning.  We began live streaming at 9p as the first serious effects of Rita started coming ashore along the Texas, Louisiana border and didn't stop until the eye moved just east of us at 4am.  Our subscribers got a look at some incredible conditions.  The wind and rain built steadily throughout the night and didn't stop until we got the western eye wall. 

Power went out to our hotel early on and made seeing the full effects difficult in the dark.  For me it was the opportunity to report from the teeth of the storm and stand out in it, which wouldn't have been possible of Rita had remained at Cat 4 or 5.  We lost portions of the roof of the hotel, but the windows held.  The conditions were such that it was just on the cusp of not being safe to be on the ground in the wind.  That's my kind of hurricane. 

We streamed live without any loss of signal, coming down only for a short time to feed some material to our video control room.  Take a look at some of the worst of the storm there. 

As for the aftermath, there is a lot of power out.  Trees litter roads and expressways.  But this could have been tremendously worse. 

9.23  8:30pm

Continuous Live Streaming Starts 9p CDT

We'll be efforting a continuing live stream from Beaumont.  We expect the center of circulation to hit us sometime betwwen 3-4AM.  Conditions are deteriorating rapidly with both heavy wind and rain.  The forecast track continues to place us directly in the gunsights with the eye expected to pass directly over our position. 

Power has been on and off for the last hour.  I suspect we will lose it altogether shortly.

9.23  6pm

We couldn't be better situated.  The latest forecast track continues to take the eye of hurricane Rita right over our position on the west side of Beaumont.  We are begining to get good rain bands and more persistent winds.  Unfortunately the worst of the conditions will likely come in the dark.   A night landfall is difficult if power goes because you hear various sounds, howling, creaking, breaking glass and are left only to wonder what is happening.  Is your building coming apart.  Will your windows go next?

We have a well-lluminated perspective if the power holds.  Once it's knocked out we'll have some portable lighting so you can best see the impact. 

Where Are We?

To recap our position: we are on the west side of Beaumont in a five story concrete building.  We are on the third floor where we can get protection even if there is a roof failure.  We think we can retreat to the inside of the building if it becomes necessary.  We are beyond the surge zone and think we are high enough based on topography maps to avoid flooding. 

Better Preparation

It is amazing to see how much better prepared officials are for this event than for Katrina.  Gas is being given to stranded drivers.  Buses are being provided for those who don't have cars.  There have been emergency air flights for the sick.  But the storm isn't here yet.  This is another large population center.  There are still alot of people here. 

Landfall Scenario

Rita has weakened just a bit.  The warm gulf has not led to strengthening and there is wind shear forecast before landfall.  Hopefully we get this down to a Cat 3 by landfall.  We are going to get serious effects of the storm starting tonight and in the dark of night.  The target now is for the eye to be over us by 7am Saturday morning.  Cat 3 is like Ivan last year.  And with the potential for the storm to stall after it makes landfall, the flood threat is great.  That's how most people get killed in a hurricane anyway. 

Katrina Versus Rita

Who could have guessed a week ago that Rita would be a potentially bigger deal than Katrina.  As Rob Hess said to me tonight, "I was thinking as we left for Texas that 'this is the year of Katrina' and nothing could top it."  At this stage Rita has already been a more intense storm.  It has remained as strong as Katrina was at landfall and has already led to the biggest evacuation in the nation's history.   And the storm isn't even here yet.   Who would think Rita could top the post storm devastation from the flooding caused by Katrina.  But what if people are stranded in their cars along expressways as the storm hits?  And what if the storm stalls over Houston (as is now forecast) like tropical storm Allison did in 2001 causing horrible flooding? 

Evacuation News

Well, we have taken a disaster that  could have begun with the arrival of a hurricane and have found a way to start it two days early.  The headline on this storm is probably the way people (because of Katrina) have responded to evacuation orders.  You'd think that would be a good thing.  But so many people fled the Houston area the roads were swamped!  It has been incredibly hot.  Some people were pushing their cars to conserve gas and not using air conditioning.  Many ran out of gas and the stations are closed.  Texas DOT and Houston officials are trying to get gas to them but it's an incredible mess.   And I am told it is worse to the north and west of Houston than to the east where we crossed.  One of our subscribers notes that those stranded are not at this point asked to call 911.  The system is getting overwhelmed.  They ask those who need roadside assistance to call 1-800-525-5555 (Do NOT call 911).

More Rita vs. Katrina

Rita already topped Katrina in terms of low pressure.  Tops on the list of low pressures: Gilbert's 888 in 1988 and the famous "Labor Day" hurricane of 1935 at 892.  Then comes Rita which got to 897, followed by Allen and then Katrina. 

As one of our astute subscribers, Maggy Sargent, points out there is a big difference between a storm attaining a low pressure and what the pressure is when it hits land.  The most intense storm to hit the US coast was the Labor Day hurricane, then Camille, Katrina and Andrew in that order.  Rita's last pressure reading was over 900 but nothing is assured. 

Watch Local TV

We invite you to check out what's happening in the target zone and to click here to watch the KHOU-TV broadcast.   Former National Hurricane Center Director Neal Frank is the head meteorologist there.  More perspective from him below.  The KPRC-TV feed can also be seen on our Data Console. 

Houston Another New Orleans?

Houston seems less likely for a direct hit now and no, Houston isn't like New Orleans.  It isn't in a bowl.  But remember the flood the decimated downtown Houston in 2001?  That was from a quick-developing tropical storm that moved back and forth across the city instead of clearing out.  A TROPICAL STORM.  Take a look at the Houston Chronicle pictures of what happened then.  It's not pretty.   Even a significant rainfall event, absent a direct hit, could cause them problems. 

Click Here for a look at the Houston Flood of 2001

KHOU TV in Houston also did a nice job of crystal-balling a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane in their city. 

Click Here for KHOU-TV Worst Case Report

Bitter Ironies

Before Katrina hit New Orleans I wrote in this space about similarities between the Galveston hurricane of 1900 and what was approaching New Orleans.  Unfortunately it was right on the money (See reprint below).  And now the irony is that a similar event could decimate Galveston again and the city that grew became what it is because Galveston never recovered: Houston.  An even more bitter irony is a storm targeting all of the Katrina victims who are now taking refuge there. 

At this point we can only hope that ridge of high pressure in place over the southern US that is keeping Rita on a westward path stays in place longer than forecast and drives the storm somewhere between Corpus Christi and Brownsville and across the least populated part of south central Texas.  At this point that's not the forecast. 

08.27.05   Saturday Thoughts  .

Before we went to bed last night I wrote the following about the forecast track, "I   wouldn't be suprised to see it shift again to either New Orleans or even farther west." So I guess we're not surprised this morning to see the new forecast heading straight for New Orleans. And until we get that turn, it could shift even farther west, though the National Hurricane Center seems to think the westward trend is ending. We'll see. 

How Strong Is Katrina Going to Get?

It's a Cat 3 now, with winds of 115mph. As I said last night: Warm Gulf water+ little or no wind shear+moist air=nasty hurricane. The official NHC forecast is now for 138 mph winds at landfall. The model that was forecasting winds of 150 mph last night has backed off a bit to 141 based on some wind shear that may eventually develop the longer it stays out there. Also, look at the satellite pics (check our data center page). This is a huge hurricane. Not like Dennis (that was July 9, just to the east on the Panhandle), which was a tight core. Katrina will do damage in a wide swath. 

Where Will It Ultimately Hit?

The official track now has New Orleans in...well, deep water. As promised yesterday after the 11am advisory I will move out some additional thoughts about hurricanes and New Orleans. I've spent a lot of time there on various storms over the years and have visited the huge pumping station that will try to keep the city dry in a major storm event. Suffice it to say, New Orleans has never been through a Cat 4. The last Cat 3 just about ruined the city and led to development of much of the levy system that now protects it. The only potential good news in the westward shift is that if it keeps going it could end up on the bayou where there are fewer folks. 

Andrew In Reverse

In an interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN's "Situation Room" Friday afternoon I said Katrina's path reminded me of Andrew in 1992. It cut across south Florida and then targeted Louisiana. I rode Andrew out in Morgan City. It was a weakened Cat 3 in Louisiana after tearing up Florida as a Cat 5. Katrina, which came across Florida Cat 1 is doing just the opposite. Another storm that had a similar path, 1965's Betsy, which was the last big one to hit New Orleans...a Cat 3 with 125 mph winds. If, God forbid, a Cat 5 were to hit New Orleans dead on it would be the storm of the century. 

8.23.05  And Now There are 12...but what if there are too many?

    If you check the list of 2005 storm names on our HURRICANE DATA CENTER page you'll find the alphabetical list contains only 21 names.  In part that's because it's not easy to find good names for the Q, U, X, Y, Z letters (with all due respect to Zelda, Ursula, Quentin and the like) and partly because there have never been more than 21 named storms in recorded history.  The record of 21 was set in 1933. 

     But here we are before even the heart of the season is upon us and we're already at 10 named storms, with a 12th tropical depression already cooking.  Esteemed forecaster William Gray predicts 20 storms for 2005.  The private Accu-Weather sees 18.  And even NOAA upped its forecast to between 18 and 21.  So what if we get all the way to Vince and Wilma this year and another storm comes along?  The National Hurricane Center says it would then shift to the Greek alphabet and we could get hurricane Alpha or Beta.

     It wasn't until 1953, by the way, that the United States began using female names in alphabetical order to identify hurricanes.  And it was 25 years later, 1978, when the US stopped naming hurricanes solely after women and switched to both men's and women's names. 

08.18.05  What is Windshear?

Wind shear is change in wind direction or speed at different altitudes.  If, for example, storm winds are at the surface are 80 mph from the east but significantly increase in speed or change direction as you go higher, that is a high wind shear environment.  When there is low wind shear the wind is generally blowing the same way and at about the same speed both at the surface as well as higher up or there is very little wind at all.   

Low Shear=Possible Storm Development

Low shear allows a storm to build heat, which rises directly up and creates a nice pressure cooker environment that aids in storm development.

High Shear=Storm Weakening

In a high wind shear environment, winds hit the top of the storm and shear it off so that when the heat rises it is dissipated over a larger area and development is either retarded or reversed.  High shear also causes the kind of turbulence that makes a plane ride bumpy when you fly through it. 

What It Meant For Irene, TD 10

It was high shear that kept Irene from growing faster earlier in its life, even though there was some nice warm water it was moving over.  Eventually Irene got out of the shear and built to hurricane strength.  If you get enough wind shear for long enough it’s bye-bye storm as was the case with Tropical Depression 10 that was ripped apart before it ever made it to TS Jose.   After the shear lessened, what was TD 10 developed some again.   

08.12.05  Irene Insight: Get It Here

Though we have been tracking Irene through its waxing and waning for days, the more mainstream media (24 hour TV news nets, radio networks, papers) are now begining to pick up coverage.  If you take a look at the satellite imagery on our data page you see a developing storm approaching the US Atlantic coast and it sure looks like it's coming that way.  The truth is right now it is. 

But those of us tuned in to the deeper strands of information like the National Hurricane Center's discussion and various models and weather maps, see a different picture.   Looking at the temperatures of the water the hurricane will move over and seeing the moisture content of the air ahead of it give us a clue about how strong the storm might get. 

A check of the kind of weather in the atmosphere it will move into, the subtropical ridge it is now moving around for example, give us a picture of where it might steer. 

The hurricane track models that take all of this into account are now almost all in agreement that because of these factors we're unlikely to see anything more than a Category 1 hurricane and that even if it reaches that strength Irene will curve north and west well short of the US coast. 

So while the final fate of Irene and the US coast is far from decided we feel we have a clearer picture and context than you'll get most places.  Coverage like this, deeper, more detailed and with a clearer insight into the future, is what you get in places like HURRICANENOW.  Stay abreast of the headlines with the mainstream media.  Come to places like HURRICANENOW for the depth you desire on the subjects that really interest you. 

08.10.05  Beware of Weak Storms

Lots of ifs at the moment but the possibility certainly exists that we could have another hurricane strike on the US coast by the end of next week. Right now it looks unlikely that Irene would be a very large or powerful storm but in some ways those are the best storms to cover...enabling us to be out in it, reporting live as it comes to shore. 

But that also reminds me a little of hurricane Bertha in 1996 which looked like a fairly weak Cat 1 North Carolina storm. So we decided to ride it out on Carolina Beach in an expensive satellite uplink truck. Then, in the 12 hours before landfall, the winds kicked up from barely 80mph to over 100mph as it came over us between Topsail and Wrightsville Beaches. A little more powerful and it would not have been pleasant explaining how I lost a half million dollar piece of technology in what I assured everyone was going to be a "puny" storm. Just a reminder that for all the hurricane Dennises which look like big trouble and weaken before landfall, there is a Bertha or a Charley that does just the opposite. 

07.28.05  2005 An All-time Record?

The Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel has a good piece today on all-time hurricane records. We already knew that this July's 7 storms the most named storms ever. And it's the earliest we've ever gotten to the D, E, F and G storms. The Sun Sentinel reminds that the record for most named storms in a season is 21, set in 1933. And if you check the list of hurricane names for 2005 on our data center page you'll find there are only 21 names (since the list doesn't include Q, U, X, Y, or Z names). The Hurricane Center says if 2005 got beyond 21 storms they would start over with the Greek alphabet.

As they say with mutual funds, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But the environmental conditions which make storm development more likely remain in place. Another caveat is that hurricane records only date back to 1851. And accurate records based on satellite recon only began in 1965. Before then a lot of smaller storms like this season's Arlene, and the recent Gert and now Franklin, might not have even been detected. Still it's been quite a year and promises to get even more interesting. 

07.21.05  MAHEM A DEFINITE GAMBLE

     Other than Emily, the hurricane headline of the last few days has been a new futures market aimed at more accurately predicting hurricane landfalls. 

     The Miami Huricane Event Market or MAHEM allows meteorology students, trained forecasters and the general public to invest in shares that represent possible landfall points. The winners get a payout.  The idea is that investors, with a financial incentive to get the best information, will come up with a more accurate forecast. 

    MAHEM is the brainchild of three University of Miami professors, two of economy and one of meteorology.  They point to the success of futures markets in predicting the outcomes of everything from where flu might strike to who will win an Academy Award. 

     The surprising intensity of last year's hurricane Charley and it's early curl into the Florida coast as well as a last second track change for hurricane Dennis last week have brought new focus on the official National Hurricane Center Forecast. 

     The NHC, which relies on raw data and the skill of its forecasters to make official predictions says it already uses the best information to determine where hurricanes will strike.  At this point nobody tops them.   But who knows what the future(s) hold. 

07.12.05  WHAT WE ACCOMPLISHED

     As I drive east on I-10 across the Florida Panhandle that just absorbed the brunt of hurricane Dennis, I’m reflecting on what we at HURRICANENOW accomplished over the past few days.   This was what I called a “shakedown cruise,” for us.  Though we have great experience covering storms, we hadn’t done it here yet.

    Would we be able to keep the site updated with the latest information?  Would we have the ability to file reports through the worst of the storm?  Would we be able to successfully stream live reports as we tracked Dennis in a moving car as it made its way inland?  Would anyone care? 

SITE UPDATES

     We posted updates half a dozen times a day…more during the height of the storm.  Did we post something every time the National Hurricane Center issued a new advisory? No.  But we have links to the NHC’s latest and we know that many already visit there frequently.  We also had some nice feedback from people who said they appreciated our insight and perspective. 

REPORTING THROUGH “THE WORST”

     We’d done a lot of testing of our transmission.  But until there was a real, live storm we couldn’t be sure.  We can now report that our transmission path didn’t go down once during Dennis.  Our Control Room and home page continued to get updated reports, even as the storm was hitting.  Some of our visitors asked for more.  We’ll work on it. 

LIVE STREAMING

    In tests we’d had some problems getting the picture quality to meet our standards.  And we found the stream would occasionally “burp” or freeze up as we transmitted.  The fact is we were a little late delivering a few of our streams.  And the quality wasn’t always perfect.   But the worst thing that happened all day was forgetting to plug a microphone in for one report.  That we can fix.  The live pictures stayed up through some pretty rough conditions and we even streamed live from a moving car. 

DO YOU CARE?

     Because we considered ourselves to be in “testing mode” during Dennis we did very little publicity about the site…almost no marketing or outreach.  Despite that, word spread quickly.   We received network TV attention and by the time it was over 30-thousand people had visited HURRICANENOW.com.  Hundreds signed up for and received our email alerts. 

     Most important to us, we got some amazing feedback from people who share our passion about hurricanes.  Dozens have offered to help covering storms or to blog.  We got some tremendously thoughtful feedback on the site: why people like it and what we can do to make it better. 

     I just want to say Thank You.  Thanks for visiting.  Thanks for sharing.  Thanks for being interested in these huge displays of nature we call hurricanes.  Please visit often.  There will be something new here all the time. 

07.09.05  Some Personal Thoughts

     It’s an interesting time for a hurricane reporter…the night before the big one hits.  You spend all this time angling to get into the path of a huge storm while everyone else is headed the other way.  Then you begin to wonder about why you were so eager.

     I remember the first hurricane I covered for CNN: Gilbert in 1988.  The night before as I waited in Corpus Christi, Texas I called my young daughter to tell her I loved her and to hear her voice.  Not that I thought I was going to die, but big storms are unpredictable. Sometimes things go wrong even if you have experience.  I didn’t have much then. 

     I remember reporting out in hurricane Bertha in 1996.  I heard a clatter behind me...  looked around and saw something flash by.  “That appeared to be a piece of metal,” I sai, with some nervous laughter.  A few feet in the other direction and the day would have ended badly.  It would have been my own fault.

     After almost two decades of covering big storms like Opal and Hugo and the big daddy, Andrew, I have a lot more experience.  But even though I may be smarter hurricanes are just as unpredictable.  Things still go wrong. 

     So tonight I give my beautiful wife and two wonderful daughters a call…to tell them I love them and to hear their voices.  Not that I expect to die or anything. 

     I’ll be on the beach somewhere as Dennis comes ashore.  It’s what I do.  Lots of jobs are dangerous…plenty more than this one.  And the truth is I love experiencing the raw and awesome power of nature.  My family has always known that.  Now you do too.

 Tomorrow’s a big day. 

     Jeff

07.08.05  WE'LL BE THERE FOR "THE WORST"

No Death Wish

We talk a lot here at HURRICANENOW about how we intend to continue reporting through the ”worst of the storms.”  It’s not a death wish but something we have experience with and are good at.  Our team members have been in dozens of hurricanes.  We’ve spent a good bit of time planning as well as researching and testing technologies that we believe will allow us to transmit through pretty rough weather. 

Having said that, none of us expected that our first big storm of the season would be Category 4 or 5 hurricane.  And frankly I still think Dennis is more likely a Cat 3 on US landfall.

Hurricane Experience

Members of our team have covered Hugo, Andrew Opal and last year’s Charley…the most powerful land falling hurricanes of the past 20 years.  We know the difference between Category one or two storms (1996’s Bertha and Fran, both Cat 2) and the intensely dangerous Category 4 (Hugo) or Andrew (5).

I pointed out, w hen a lot of viewers expressed concern as I stood in the gale from Bertha in Carolina Beach, North Carolina in 1996, “based on my experience I feel fairly safe.”  As I said then, “This is no Hugo or Andrew.” I would know, since I also covered 1989’s Hugo and 1992’s Andrew. 

We're Prepared  

If hurricane Dennis comes ashore as a Category 4 or 5 storm, no reporters will be standing out in the teeth of 130-150 mph winds.  We’ll be there but we’ll be protected.  Part of our pre-storm preparation includes researching hurricane-resistant structures…steel and concrete buildings, high enough to protect against surge, engineered specifically to withstand strong winds and flying debris.  We know where to go and how to be safe.  With our technology, planning, experience and its experience’s sidekick, a little bit of luck, we’ll give you a unique look at a powerful hurricane as it comes ashore.  

We’ve promised the “most compelling hurricane reporting on TV or the web.” And that’s what we intend to deliver.  And we also plan to be around to tell about it after it’s done.  

07.07.05  OUR FOCUS: JUST THE STORM

A Tough Morning

          Most of us woke up this morning to the horrible news of another coordinated terrorist attack in one of the world’s major cities.  For many, particularly those who lost loved ones on 9-11-01 or were otherwise personally involved, it was a nightmare flashback.  Maybe it was for all of us. 

Terrorism vs. A Tropical Terror   

          The focus of the TV news channels, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, was the attack…as it should be.  It came at a time when coverage of a rapidly and dangerously strengthening hurricane Dennis would have normally been ramping up.  Of course the fact that there was bigger news in the world didn’t make the existence of a potentially killer hurricane any less important.  

          The New York Times claims to be “All the news that’s fit to print.”  The truth is for both TV and newspapers they print (or broadcast) all the news that fits.  There are after all only 24 hours in a broadcast day. 

Our Focus: The Storm

           Here at HURRICANENOW our focus is always on the storm.  Whether it’s for something as important as a terrorist attack or just other news, the all-news channels don't go wall to wall with hurricane coverage.  They probably shouldn't.  Even the Weather Channel doesn’t.  There is, after all, other weather news out there.  

          As for us, we will continue to report virtually non-stop from the field when the storm is at its worst.  We are using several different technologies to enable us to keep going when the networks’ expensive satellite trucks have to lower their transmit dishes in the wind.

The Most Complete, Continuous, Compelling Coverage

          We say our coverage will be more complete, compelling and continuous than on the TV news networks because we devote all our attention and all of our “broadcast” day to the hurricane.   HURRICANENOW is for those of us who just can’t get enough storm reporting.  If that’s you, come along for the ride. 

07.06.05 WHY NOW?

More Share Our Passion

              Our HurricaneNow team has always been deeply interested in hurricanes.  We always saw the need for more complete, compelling and continuous hurricane coverage than available on TV or the web.  But the reason we launched HurricaneNow this year was because more and more people seem to be sharing our passion…whether they want to or not. 

2004-2005 Watershed Seasons

              Last year’s four land falling hurricanes really increased people’s sensitivity to storms, particularly in Florida which had less than its share for a long time. 

              Also the experts seemed to be in agreement that this year was going to be another extraordinary hurricane year.  Dr. Bill Gray’s forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 of them intense storms. 

              So far the season has more than lived up to advanced billing with the busiest early storm season in history.  Never before have there been four named storms this early.  And now with Dennis, we have our first hurricane of the season and it looks like it could be a big one. 

Exploding Technology

              The other reason we’ve begun the HurricaneNow enterprise this year is the explosion in technology that allows live reporting through multiple new channels never available before. 

              In the early black and white TV days of hurricane reporting, the likes of Dan Rather and the rest were doing something big just to be able to broadcast from a TV studio during a storm.  Eventually, mobile microwave transmitters made it possible for local TV stations to report live from the field.  And then satellite uplink trucks came along and allowed both local stations and TV networks to beam their pictures from almost anywhere a storm was hitting.

              But those million dollar “sat trucks” even today have to lower their transmitting “dishes” in the worst of storms because they tend to act like a big sail in the wind and are prone to being damaged or torn off.  That means we often miss the worst of the "best" storms.

Internet, Wifi, Videophones

              Now with the internet and increased ability to transmit video and audio we can use wireless high speed connections and wireless air cards from Sprint and other providers to “go live” through the most difficult conditions.  Small-dish satellite videophones also give us another option to transmit when the power is out and the winds are intense. 

              Both mother nature and the mothers of invention are combining this year to provide an opportunity for some incredible hurricane coverage.  We hope you’ll watch it right here on HurricaneNow. 

07.05.05 BIG TALK, LOTS OF ACTION

              We here at HurricaneNow would be the first to admit the 2005 hurricane season has gotten a lot of advanced billing.  But so far the reality matches.  The experts predicted 2005 would be an extraordinary hurricane year and could even top the wild 2004 season.  The reality is we’ve already had two named storms in June.  And now we've got two more in the first week of July.  It is the earliest there have been this many named storms in recorded history.  

              To put this in even more perspective, last year there were NO named storms in either June or July.  And when last year was done four hurricanes had hit the US coast (first time since 1985).  And there were 23 so-called “intense hurricane days.”  That was the most in recorded history (tied with 1926).

              Just to remind everyone about 2005 predictions: the consensus seems to be 14 tropical storms with eight becoming named hurricanes.  Four of them are predicted to be intense hurricanes. 

              This outlook is in part fueled by water temperatures that are warmer than usual and trade winds that are weaker.  

              Of course early season activity is no guarantee of anything but it’s not exactly a hostile environment for hurricane development out there.  Just think, Cindy and Dennis by the the first week in July.  Do we dare think about getting to Ophelia and Phillippe before the season ends? 

              We’ll be keeping you up to date on our coverage plans and if we get a significant land falling hurricane you will watch it unfold live right here at HurricaneNow.

07.03.05 WHAT COULD BECOME TROPICAL STORM "CINDY"

Don't Get Too Excited...Yet

It’s always a challenge for us hurricane watchers to know when to get excited and not get excited about storm development in the tropics.  Now is one of those challenging times.

We now have a tropical depression (which could be Tropical Storm Cindy if it develops) in the northwest Caribbean. 

Check Our Links

If you check the National Hurricane Center Links on our homepage you’ll see the strike probability cone and predictions which have it moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf, turning into a tropical storm and making landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston late Wednesday.  Of course this is all very early to be sure about much.

Keep Your Eyes Open

So, do we get excited or not?  In one of my favorite movie lines: “At this point we don’t know.”  (Jim Belushi in "About Last Night," fyi).Don't worry about your fourth of July plans, but beyond that, keep your eyes open.

What we do know is when we have an active tropical depression and the National Hurricane Center starts tracking it we have taken a major leap from all that “staring into the satellite images looking for trouble” that we’ve been doing up to now. 

So we’ll be watching the reports from the reconnaissance flights and the advisories from the National Hurricane Center.  If we do begin to see some real development we’ll be kicking into our coverage mode and begin sharing with you our planning and locations.

Premium Content Coming

If we do see the possibility of a live hurricane forming in the Gulf we’ll be introducing our premium coverage content that will give you live streaming reports and unprecedented ability to interact with our teams in the field and much more.

Oh, and did I mention there is tropical wave now about to enter the other side of the Caribbean to the east?  As we said, it’s a challenging time.

06.30.05 MORE ON OUR COVERAGE PLANS

What We're Planning
While we keep one eye on the tropics, we here at HURRICANENOW have the other on our coverage plans for the season. I want to fill you in on some of what we're working on.

Transmitting Live Reports
We've spent the past several months testing some new and exciting modes of transmitting the latest storm pictures and sound. It used to be that sending a live, TV report from the field involved the use of a million dollar satellite truck, highly paid technicians and expensive transponder time on an orbiting satellite. But technology is really exploding when it comes to transmitting live video.

How We'll Do It
Some of the newest technology allows live streaming from the increasing number of wifi hotspots. We'll also be using the Sprint PCS network. Their latest air cards essentially give you a mobile broadband connection. And we'll also use video phones which transmit direct to satellite when hot spots lose power and cell phone towers are knocked out.

Blogs and Discussion
We're now assembling a cadre of people we think have something to say about hurricanes. You'll find their comments in the Talk Back Now section of the web site starting next week. These days there are lots of blogs out there. We'll be editing what we think of as a "Blog of Blogs" so you get the sharpest, most insightful and succinct hurricane commentary available.

Video Nerve Center
We've also been spending time creating our video control room. Since most of us have a TV background we're fashioning it after the control rooms we've all worked in. There will be various "feeds" available that you as the "director" will be able to click on and watch. Right now there is some of our work from last season and a report during TS Arlene from our Mark Sudduth, who many of you know from the popular HurricaneTrack.com site. During a live storm we'll be continuously updating the control room with our latest reports.

Premium Content Preview
Next week we'll be introducing our premium content. It will include live streaming of our reports, a way for you to interact live with our field teams and other exclusive coverage you won't get anywhere else. And we'll be offering a discount to those who sign up early.

A Revolution in Hurricane Coverage
We've promised a revolution in the way you get information about hurricanes. What promises to be a very active hurricane season combined with exploding technology will make this an incredible hurricane season. Be a part of it here on hurricanenow.com

06.28.05 WATCHING AND WAITING

With one tropical storm already in the books you'll have to forgive our HurricaneNow.com team for being a little anxious. Yes, it’s only June 28…early in the season. But with dire predictions for this year, we hurricane watchers are good at staring into the murky gray satellite images off the coast of Africa and seeing the formation of monster storms. More often than not it’s like the folks farther to the east in Africa where those wandering in the Sahara see an oasis that proves to be just as much of a mirage.

But you don’t have to remember too far back to an early season storm that packed a pretty powerful punch. It was July 7, 1996 that Bertha became the hurricane that would slam into North Carolina’s southern coastline 5 days later, a category 2 storm that did $270 million in damage.

I was reporting for CNN from Carolina Beach where we got maximum sustained winds of 105 miles and hour. A gust as high as 144 mph was reported in nearby Topsail Beach.

It was quite a ride and lesson for our team which put our half million dollar satellite truck right on the beach front figuring Bertha was coming in as a weak, Cat 1, early season storm. Some warm ocean waters helped boost its intensity to nearly Cat 3 before landfall and we had some anxious moments as roofs began coming off with us pinned down and ducking flying tin and lumber.

A check of the sea surface temperatures finds it pretty warm out there this early season too. So forgive us if we start seeing hurricane mirages in the Atlantic. You never know when one of them will turn into the real thing.

http://www.cnn.com/US/9607/13/bertha/best.of.flock.mov

http://www.cnn.com/US/9607/12/bertha.5p/flock.mov

http://www.cnn.com/US/9607/12/bertha.5p/roof.mov

06.13.05 A "SEA CHANGE" IN HURRICANE REPORTING

   These are some exciting days for us.the launch of hurricanenow.com: a website that will enable us to indulge one of our passions-hurricanes. They say, "Do what you love, and the rest will follow." We here at hurricanenow.com are trying. We're the kind of people who, when a storm hits, just can't get enough of the latest information about where it's going and what it's doing. We're constantly seeking the latest reports from the field and all the sights and sounds of the storm for as long as it's making noise. At hurricanenow.com we'll be trying to give you all you want and more.

   Please poke around our site to learn who we are and some of what we have in mind. Bottom line: we want to give you the most complete, compelling, captivating reporting from the site of land falling hurricanes available anywhere.

    In addition to providing information about hurricanes, this website may also be a part of a "sea change" in how people get information about the stories they care about. I was in the control room 25 years ago this month when a man named Ted Turner dedicated something he called: "the news channel for America." CNN was successful at the start because people wanted the latest reports and pictures of what was happening in their world and didn't want to wait for the network evening news shows to get it. CNN gave people what they wanted.

   Now, with the web and the explosion in technology, we can drill down even deeper and let you decide for yourself what information you want. If you're like me, when a hurricane is starting to come to shore, you want non-stop reporting, pictures and sound. You just don't get that even from our friends at CNN or the Weather Channel or the excellent hurricane sites on the web. That's why there's hurricanenow.com.

   Shortly we'll also be introducing some premium content which will do an even better job of what everyone from the town crier to newspapers, radio and TV have always tried to do: "take you there," to the scene of news events so you can get a real feel for what's happening.

   That's what we'll be trying to do at hurricanenow.com. We love this stuff. We hope you are as excited as we are about the ride.

Jeff Flock